100 Burlington St, Lexington

Market Analysis for:

Fariba Esbah

I've done a market analysis on your home at 100 Burlington St in Lexington and have prepared this document to help explain how I've arrived at a price for your home. I perform a market analysis and calculate a price taking into consideration a home’s location, size, configuration, number of bedrooms and baths, lot size and general condition. I also scrutinize the home for issues that, in my experience, will impact the price of a home making it more or less valuable. Then, I look at your current competition - the other homes that buyers in your price range will be viewing, to help determine your price.

Contents

  1. Description of Home
  2. Market Dynamics
  3. Analysis of Relevant Properties
  4. Pricing Recommendation
  5. Marketing

Description of home

Please note that these comments do not relate to marketing, but are included purely to ensure that we have captured the information and reflect the major components of your home.

Your home has lovely curb appeal and is set down a little from the level of the roadway. A driveway with 4 off street parking spots and 1 car garage. As you walk up to the front door you have gardens of perennials, and a covered front porch. As you enter the foyer you have the stairs to the lower level to the right, a cased opening into the living room directly in front, the entrance to the kitchen off to the right with a wall of painted brick, and the bedroom wing off to the left.  As you walk into the kitchen area you have the informal dining area with a triple window, a woodburning cast iron firebox inset into the brick wall, white painted cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, ceramic floor tiles, granite counters, U-shaped kitchen. A door from the kitchen goes into the 1 car garage. A cased entry from the kitchen leads to the open plan dining room and living room. From the dining room via double french doors is the family room. The family room has 2 walls of half height windows and is full of natural light. The living room has a wood burning fireplace. Out the double louvre doors is the hallway into the bedroom wing. The bedroom wing has a bedroom to the left, a family bathroom which has ceramic tile floors, dual sink vanity with corian counter and white cabinetry and tub/shower. The bathroom to the right has double closets and is large.

Downstairs you have a finished walkout lower level. The majority of the lower level is carpet with 2 bedrooms and a dated full bathroom adjacent to the bedrooms. There is a large family room, with a central brick chimney and wood burning fireplace, sliding glass doors out to the patio and backyard. There is an inground swimming pool in the backyard. There is a kitchenette in the lower level with laminate flooring. A half bathroom is adjacent to the kitchenette. Another bedroom is at this end of the lower level with an exterior door. A utility room with oil fueled boiler completes the lower level.

According to public record your home has 1696 sq ft on the first floor and 1680 sq ft in the finished lower level which totals 3376 sq ft. Your home was built in 1967, is on 0.40 acres, and has 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and a 1 car garage. This market analysis is assuming the paint mentioned and the minor repairs done as discussed.

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Market Dynamics

We have been experiencing shortages of housing inventory in Lexington over the last 5 years or so. There are always a number of buyers looking to buy in Lexington because of the strong school system, the community dynamics and vibrant downtown. People like the feeling of the downtown area, and want to stop and have a coffee, or have dinner at the many restaurants, or just watch the world go by, chatting with folks who are out and about. The Minuteman bike path and conservation areas close by pull those who desire an outdoor lifestyle while still remaining within commuting distance to Boston.

The Lexington market has seen increasing prices over the last few years given the limited inventory. The demand for homes in Lexington far outweighs the supply and each month a snapshot of available homes for sale shows the declining inventory levels.

Average prices in Lexington are well above average prices obtained in the peak of the market in 2005. Average single family home prices have been increasing steadily since 2009. The real estate market downturn that existed for the last few years is well and truly over and prices are continuing to increase each year.

Sales distribution statistics for single family homes show that the $1M-$1.5M price-range is the most active in Lexington. The next busiest price range in Lexington is the $1.5M - $2M price range. This is an indicator that new construction is having a significant impact on the average single family home prices in Lexington. The number of new construction homes being built in Lexington in 2013 was 55 homes, 70 homes in 2014, 71 homes in 2015, and 66 homes in 2016.

Before reviewing the price per sq foot charts it is important to throw in a caveat of using the average as the definitive guide. There is wide variability among agents as to what is included in the living area reported in MLS. In some instances, agents will include a finished component of the basement in the living area and this is acceptable so long as how the living area is calculated is disclosed. Others report the living area reported in public record, which never includes finished areas in the basement, but note in MLS that there is a finished basement. To this end, it is important to review each individual listing to determine the ‘true’ price per sq. ft. of above ground living area, but we also need to factor into this when a home has a finished basement.

Reviewing the price per sq. foot charts for single family homes shows us that the average price per sq. ft. in Lexington around the $900K price range is around $406 per sq. ft. It’s important to note that the maximum price per sq. ft. achieved varies across most price ranges, along with the minimum obtained for each price range.

When the year built is in the 1960’s the average price per sq. ft. is $426.

The chart below shows that single family homes in Lexington of similar size to your home in the 3,000 square foot range, have an average price per square foot of $387 but it increases to $405 per sq. ft. when you decrease to the 2,000 square foot range. It is common across municipalities to see an increase in the price per square foot for smaller sized homes, as it reflects the minimum cost of a home in a town irrespective of the property size.

The chart below shows how many months’ supply of inventory there is in a given price range. It uses the assumption that given the same rate of sales over the prior 12 months, and considering current inventory available for sale, how many months it should take to sell the available inventory. This is referred to “Absorption” in the real estate world. 

Any price range where there is more than 7 months’ supply, we consider there to be an oversupply of inventory, also known as a ‘buyer’s market’. Anything between 4 – 6 months is considered a balanced market. Anything less than 3 months’ supply is considered a shortage of inventory on the market at this price range, also known as a ‘sellers’ market’. As can be seen, currently, absorption rates for all homes in the $900K price range is under 1 month supply showing a severe shortage.

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Analysis of Relevant Properties

The following map shows the  homes that we believe to be of value in determining the price of your  home. Below the map you will find basic information  provided for each home including the price the home was  listed at, and the price the home sold at (if sold), the listing date, Days on market, Bedrooms, Bathrooms, living area size and lot size.  Noted for each home is a classification of Relevance which outlines whether we think the  property is valued Less (L), Relevant/Comparable (R) or Higher (H) than  your home. The notes for each home outlines the similarities and differences between  your home and the one being analyzed.

Your details: Living area 3,376 sq ft (1696 on first floor, 1680 in finished lower level) | 5 beds | 2.5 baths | Lot size 0.40 acres | Built 1967 | 1 car garage

This home is a similar size to your home at 3277 sq ft which includes the finished basement. Your home is 3376 sq ft including the finished lower level. It has 1 less bedroom than your home at 4 bedrooms, whereas your home has 5 bedrooms with 3 of them in the lower level. It has 1 more full bathroom than your home at 3.5 bathrooms, yours has 2.5 bathrooms. It is on a larger lot of 0.52 acres in the popular Manor neighborhood, yours is on 0.40 acres. It also has a 1 car garage. This home was built in 1954. The home had a traditional layout of the living room on one side of the front door and the dining room on the other. Banks of windows in both rooms. The kitchen is at the back of the home with similar wood cabinetry, but mismatched appliances and is open to an informal dining area and has a sliding glass door out to the deck beyond. There is one bedroom on the main floor and the remainder of the bedrooms are on the second floor.  The master bedroom has a master bathroom attached. The basement was basically finished.

Relevance:  Relevant, but less.  Given the inferior basement, 1 more full bathroom, inferior kitchen, but superior configuration I believe that once all factors are considered it is relevant to your home but your home should sell for more.

Your details: Living area 3,376 sq ft (1696 on first floor, 1680 in  finished lower level) | 5 beds | 2.5 baths | Lot size 0.40 acres | Built  1967 | 1 car garage

This home is smaller than your home at 2990 sq ft which includes the finished lower level. Your home is 3376 sq ft including the finished lower level. It has 1 less bedroom than your home at 4 bedrooms although when reviewing the floor plan there are 5 bedrooms in the home so I believe the agent made a mistake when entering the information into MLS, and has 3 full bathrooms vs your 2.5 bathrooms. It is on a smaller lot of 0.30 acres in a popular area, yours is 0.40 acres. It has a 1 car attached garage.  This home has central a/c. The home was built in 1956.  The home was in lovely condition with freshly painted walls, a kitchen which open to a huge cathedral ceiling family room. The kitchen has white shaker style cabinets, corian counters, white appliances. The family room was stunning and light filled and had sliding glass doors leading to the deck outside.  4 bedrooms including the master suite are on the main level so the configuration is more desirable than your configuration.  The master bathroom had recently been renovated and had a dual sink vanity, corian counters. The family bathroom on this level had also been recently renovated and also had corian counter vanity. There was a small kitchenette in the lower level along with another bedroom and full bathroom.


Relevance: Relevant. Given the slightly smaller size, smaller lot size, but superior condition, master suite and central a/c, and taking your swimming pool into account I believe that once all the factors are considered this home is relevant to your home.

Your details: Living area 3,376 sq ft (1696 on first floor, 1680 in  finished lower level) | 5 beds | 2.5 baths | Lot size 0.40 acres | Built  1967 | 1 car garage

This home is smaller than your home at 2540 sq ft but this does not include the finished basement. Your home is 3376 sq ft which includes the finished basement. It has 1 less bedroom than your home at 4 bedrooms. It has the same number of bathrooms as your home at 2.5 bathrooms. It has a 2 car garage versus your 1 car garage.  It is on a smaller lot of 0.28 acres in the popular Manor neighborhood, yours is on 0.40 acres with a swimming pool that most buyers do not want.  This home is in lovely condition and has recently been completely painted inside. The kitchen has oak cabinets, and white appliances and is a little basic. The master suite has an attached master bathroom. All 4 bedrooms are on the second level which is the preferred configuration to buyers.

Relevance: Relevant, but higher. Given the smaller size albeit the lower level has not been included, similar condition, along with the 2 car garage, and your larger lot size but countering this with the swimming pool that most buyers do not want I believe that once all factors are considered this home is relevant to your home but it will sell for more.

Your details: Living area 3,376 sq ft (1696 on first floor, 1680 in  finished lower level) | 5 beds | 2.5 baths | Lot size 0.40 acres | Built  1967 | 1 car garage

This home is larger than your home at 3600 sq ft which also includes the finished basement. Your home is 3376 sq ft which includes the finished basement. It has the same number of bedrooms as your home at 5 bedrooms. It has 1 more full bathroom than your home at 3.5 bathrooms. It has a 2 car garage versus your home's 1 car garage. It is on a smaller size lot of 0.16 acres on a busier street than yours which is on 0.40 acres. The home has central air. The entry into the home is stunning with a 2 story foyer, and lots of glass and light. The kitchen is in fantastic condition with high end stainless steel appliances, coffered ceiling and newer white shaker style cabinets and granite counter. It is open to the informal dining area. The master bedroom suite has a completely renovated marble dual sink vanity, with marble tiled shower with frameless glass door and ceramic floor tiles. The whole home feels light and airy. The backyard was landscaped and had a lovely patio area and lots of green grass.


Relevance: Higher. Given its superior condition, slightly inferior location, larger living area, central a/c, 2 car garage but smaller lot size I believe this home will sell for more than your home.

Your details: Living area 3,376 sq ft (1696 on first floor, 1680 in  finished lower level) | 5 beds | 2.5 baths | Lot size 0.40 acres | Built  1967 | 1 car garage

This home is larger than your home at 3648 sq ft which includes the finished basement. Yours is 3376 sq ft which includes the finished basement. It has the same number of bedrooms and bathrooms as your home. It is on a larger 1.31 acre lot on a busy street, and yours is 0.40 acres on a busy street. It has a 2 car attached garage versus your 1 car attached garage. The home was built in 1974, yours in 1967. The home was quite stunning when you walked in the front door with banks of floor to ceiling windows overlooking the acreage beyond.  The kitchen was modern with cherry cabinets, stainless steel appliances, corian counters and was open to the informal dining area and living room. The dining room was stunning and huge with multiple skylights and access to the deck at the back of the home. The lower level was quite lovely with floor to ceiling windows all along the wall overlooking the backyard. 3 of the bedrooms, including the master suite are on the main level and 2 other bedrooms were on the lower level. The master had an attached bathroom which was nicely renovated with ceramic wall and floor tiles, updated vanity and fixtures, frameless shower door. The home came on the market at too high a price, dropped its price several times before finally selling after 2 months.

Relevance: Higher.  Given the larger size of the home, superior condition, 2 car garage, master suite, larger lot size I believe this home will sell for more than your home.

Your details: Living area 3,376 sq ft (1696 on first floor, 1680 in  finished lower level) | 5 beds | 2.5 baths | Lot size 0.40 acres | Built  1967 | 1 car garage

This home is a similar size to your home at 3302 sq ft which includes the finished basement. Your home is 3376 sq ft which includes the finished lower level. It has 1 less bedroom than your home at 4 bedrooms, yours has 5 bedrooms. It has 1 more full bathroom than your home at 3.5 bathrooms whereas your home has 2.5 bathrooms.  It is on a larger lot of 0.49 acres on a busier street, whereas your home is on 0.40 acres on a busy street. It has a 2 car attached garage whereas your home has a 1 car attached garage. The home was in lovely condition with a dining room with crown molding and wainscoting, a vaulted ceiling living room with a wood burning fireplace, a lovely renovated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, granite counters, lots and lots of modern wood cabinetry and is open to a huge informal dining area and the living room.  The master bedroom is large with a large master bathroom with a dual sink vanity, marble counters and marble floor tiles. It has a jacuzzi tub and separate shower. The family bathroom had marble counter vanity and floor tiles. There was also an in-law suite that was full of light and a separate kitchen, bedroom, bathroom and living spaces. The lower level was finished nicely as well.  There was a huge deck off the back of the home with lots of green grass.  Competition pushed the price of this home well over its asking price.


Relevance: Higher. Given the similar size, superior condition, central a/c, 2 car garage, master suite, extra bathroom I believe this home will sell for more than your home.

Your details: Living area 3,376 sq ft (1696 on first floor, 1680 in  finished lower level) | 5 beds | 2.5 baths | Lot size 0.40 acres | Built  1967 | 1 car garage

This home is our listing. It is a similar size to your home but the majority of the living area is all above ground with only a100 sq ft in the lower level. It is 3298 sq ft in size, yours is 3376 sq ft which includes the lower level. It has the same number of bedrooms with 2 bedrooms on the main level and 3 bedrooms, including a master suite on the second floor. It is on a similar size lot in a cul de sac whereas your home is on a busier street. It has 3 full bathrooms versus your home having 2.5 bathrooms. It has a 2 car garage versus your home having a 1 car garage. It is in great condition with a renovated kitchen which has cherry shaker style cabinets, stainless steel appliances, granite counters and a breakfast bar island. It has an informal dining area and is also open to the dining room which has double french doors leading out to the deck. The living room is large, has a marble lined wood burning fireplace, with 2 double sliding doors leading out to the huge deck outside. Upstairs is a family room, an office and 3 more bedrooms one being the master bedroom. The 2 bathrooms on this level are recent renovations.  We had 8 competing offers on the home and it will be closing for $1,130,000.

Relevance: Higher. Given the similar size, superior condition, superior configuration including a master suite, 2 car garage, superior location this home will sell for more than your home.

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Pricing Recommendation

My analysis of the relevant homes outlined above suggests a final market value for your home of $900,000-$950,000.  

Given the current market dynamics in Lexington, I would suggest listing your home at the lower end of this price range to attract more interest and potentially multiple offers.  If the market deems your home to be worth more than the list price, then the price will be pushed over the market value of your home, and sometimes well over when we get multiple offers. You can see many examples above that came on the market for a lot less, and competition pushed them up to the price they sold for. The challenge in estimating a price for a home is ‘would this home have sold for this price if they had priced it higher?’ or was competition the driving factor that got to this price.  Experience tells me that competition is why they sold for what they did, so we have to be careful with pricing. A couple of good examples of competition pushing a price higher than market value is our listing at 60 Ivan St which came on the market for $1,029,000 and will sell for $1,130,000, and 518 Lowell St which came on the market for $899,000 and sold for $1,035,000. 

When homes are overpriced they end up sitting on the market and ultimately selling for less than market value, whereas homes priced realistically can often sell for well over market value. Competition is what will get us the highest sales price. As we see time and time again, if the buyers consider the market value of your home to be realistic in relation to the asking price, then competition will push the price up higher and often over the market value of the home. The challenge with overpricing is that the buyers are very educated – they go week after week to see homes in their price range so they KNOW what the prices are and what ‘feels’ right.

I have to stress that these are recommendations.  We would bring your home on the market at whatever price you deem to be appropriate.  

Determining the right price all depends on your motivation and your risk tolerance level. We know that homes that are priced at the 'strike price' will sell quicker and may generate more than one offer.  I’m an excellent negotiator and know how to push a price up if we have the market activity. I also know that some sellers want to put their home on for a higher price than I might recommend, which I’m willing to do, so long as it is understood that putting the home on for more than the majority of buyers perceive its value, could mean that your home will have a much longer market time and sell for less than it should have had it been priced properly out of the gate.

I DO NOT DETERMINE THE PRICE - the market dictates the value - what a buyer is willing to pay. My job is to make sure that you have the best market exposure and that your home is positioned well in the market.   I do not believe in projecting more money than I think your home will sell for just to get your business.

My team and I know how to stage and market your home, and I understand its value, but I can only sell it for what the market or a buyer will pay. I strongly believe that a home should be priced compared to the current competition, not just on what has sold in the last six months.  At the end of the day, you will be competing for the buyers looking for a home like yours and in the same price range. You can do far more 'damage' to the resultant price we get for your home if we overprice. The prospective serious buyers will see your home within the first weekend of your home coming on the market, and they will have seen everything else in this price range.  In other words, the serious buyer knows what is priced well.  If they don't see value in your home at its listing price and are not motivated to make an offer, then they will move on and keep looking.  In times of increasing prices, it is often hard to predict what a home will sell for, but be assured that even if we price your home lower than what market value is currently, market dynamics will bring the price of the home up to where it should be.  Prospective buyers should walk in thinking the price 'feels right' and are motivated to make an offer in the short term, rather than letting several months’ pass.

It is important to stress the value of marketing your home to capture the highest price.  In times of low inventory, we know your home will sell by doing the bare minimum to market it, BUT that is not going to get you the maximum price for your home.  Key to getting the maximum price for your home is to prepare a comprehensive marketing plan that incorporates all avenues available to us to expose your home to the maximum number of buyers out there looking.  Exposure, and feet in the door, is what will get you the highest price for your home. Basic ratios help explain this.  If 10% of the buyers who walk in your door fall in love with your home, then if you only have 10 buyers walking in, then potentially there is only 1 buyer - if you have 100 buyers walking in your door then using the same ratios, you will potentially have 10 buyers falling in love with your home.  10 buyers will push the price up versus only one buyer.

 New statistics state that over 100% of potential buyers search the web as their primary search vehicle.  Thankfully, your home will show fabulously in photos. With historically low interest rates likely to increase and inventory at a 7-year low, there are still homes that do not sell in this market.  I’m making my recommendations to ensure that you are one of the sellers who will have success in the first month of being on the market, but optimally the first weekend.

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We look forward to working with you!   Please reach out if you have any questions at all about this market analysis or our plans to market your home! 

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