91 Newland Rd Arlington

Market Analysis for:

Jim & Judy Danker

I've done a market analysis on your home at 91 Newland Rd in Arlington and have prepared this document to help explain how I've arrived at a price for your home. I perform a market analysis and calculate a price taking into consideration a home’s location, size, configuration, number of bedrooms and baths, lot size and general condition. I also take into account your reported condition and how, in my experience, that will impact the price of a home making it more or less valuable. 

Contents

  1. Description of Home
  2. Market Dynamics
  3. Analysis of Relevant Properties
  4. Pricing Recommendation
  5. Marketing

Description of home

Please note that these comments do not relate to marketing, but are included purely to ensure that we have captured the information and reflect the major components of your home.

Your home is a very desirable duplex townhome located in a popular area of Arlington. Adjacent to Peirce Elementary School its perfect for young families who want to live close to the elementary school.  The home is 2091 sq ft of living area, has 4 bedrooms (1 smaller), 2.5 bathrooms, 1 car deeded tandem parking and 2 common parking spots. The home was built in 2009 over a 1914 built foundation (the home is recorded in public record as 1914).

The home has lovely curb appeal, and after you walk in the front door you have the stairs upstairs to the second floor, and the living room to the left. The living room has a gas fireplace with white mantel surround and is very appealing. You have a sight line through to the back of the townhome through to the windows overlooking the backyard. As you walk toward the back of the home you pass a half bath with slate tile floor, and a butlers pantry area. Through into the kitchen area you have granite and stainless steel, double door fridge, French door leading to the back yard and room enough for a dining area and comfy sofa.

Upstairs to the second floor you have the master bedroom and 1 family bedroom on the second floor. The master bedroom has an attached bathroom which is also accessible from the hallway for the 2nd bedroom.  The attached bathroom with a marble countertop, ceramic floor and wall tiles in the shower enclosure. There is a laundry room with a stackable washer/dryer and a closet area with the furnace and instant hot water unit.

Upstairs to the third floor you have 2 family bedrooms (one of them quite small with sloping ceiling) and a family bathroom. The bathroom has marble counter vanity, ceramic floor and wall tiles around the tub/shower.

Downstairs you have the finished lower level with ceramic floor tiles and is perfect for a family room. A half French door leads out to the back yard. There is an unfinished utility room.

Nest thermostats. Your home does not look like you have lived in it since it was built because of the condition you have kept it in. It will appear to buyers to be in 'as new' condition.

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Market Dynamics

We have been experiencing shortages of housing inventory in Arlington over the last 5 years or so. There are always a number of buyers looking to buy in Arlington because of the strong school system, the community dynamics and vibrant downtown. People like the feeling of the downtown area, and want to stop and have a coffee, or have dinner at the many restaurants, or just watch the world go by, chatting with folks who are out and about. The Minuteman bike path and conservation areas close by pull those who desire an outdoor lifestyle while still remaining within commuting distance to Boston.

The Arlington market has seen increasing prices over the last few years given the limited inventory. The demand for homes in Arlington far outweighs the supply and each month a snapshot of available homes for sale shows the declining inventory levels.

Average prices in Arlington are well above average prices obtained in the peak of the market in 2010. Average condo prices have been increasing steadily since 2011. The real estate market downturn that existed for the last few years is well and truly over and prices are continuing to increase each year.

Sales distribution statistics for condos show that the $500K price-range is the most active in Arlington. The next busiest price range in Arlington is the $400K price range. 

Before reviewing the price per sq foot charts it is important to throw in a caveat of using the average as the definitive guide. There is wide variability among agents as to what is included in the living area reported in MLS. In some instances, agents will include a finished component of the basement in the living area and this is acceptable so long as how the living area is calculated is disclosed. Others report the living area reported in public record, which never includes finished areas in the basement, but note in MLS that there is a finished basement. To this end, it is important to review each individual listing to determine the ‘true’ price per sq. ft. of above ground living area, but we also need to factor into this when a home has a finished basement.

Reviewing the price per sq. foot charts for condos shows us that the average price per sq. ft. in Arlington around the $600K price range is around $432 per sq. ft. It’s important to note that the maximum price per sq. ft. achieved varies across most price ranges, along with the minimum obtained for each price range.

When the year built in the 2000’s the average price per sq. ft. is $411. We will assume a year built for your home at 2009 when marketing the home but disclose that it was originally 1914 construction.

The chart below shows that condos in Arlington of similar size to your home in the 2,000 square foot range, have an average price per square foot of $370 but it increases to $437 per sq. ft. when you decrease to the 1,000 square foot range. It is common across municipalities to see an increase in the price per square foot for smaller sized homes, as it reflects the minimum cost of a home in a town irrespective of the property size.

The chart below shows how many months’ supply of inventory there is in a given price range. It uses the assumption that given the same rate of sales over the prior 12 months, and considering current inventory available for sale, how many months it should take to sell the available inventory. This is referred to “Absorption” in the real estate world. 

Any price range where there is more than 7 months’ supply, we consider there to be an oversupply of inventory, also known as a ‘buyer’s market’. Anything between 4 – 6 months is considered a balanced market. Anything less than 3 months’ supply is considered a shortage of inventory on the market at this price range, also known as a ‘sellers’ market’. As can be seen, currently, absorption rates for all condos in the $600K price range shows there is under 1 month’s supply showing a severe shortage.

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Analysis of Relevant Properties

The following map shows the  homes that we believe to be of value in determining the price of your  home. Below the map you will find basic information  provided for each home including the price the home was  listed at, and the price the home sold at (if sold), the listing date, Days on market, Bedrooms, Bathrooms, living area size and lot size.  Noted for each home is a classification of Relevance which outlines whether we think the  property is valued Less (L), Relevant/Comparable (R) or Higher (H) than  your home. The notes for each home outlines the similarities and differences between  your home and the one being analyzed.

Your details: Living area 2091 sq ft | 4 beds | 2.5 baths | Built 2009 | 1 deeded tandem parking, 1 off street common parking space

This is a first floor condo in a 2 family building. This home is smaller than your home at 1800 sq ft which includes some living area in the lower level, as does yours. The building was originally built in 1914 as was yours, but converted and renovated in 2017 so it could be considered new construction.  It has 3 bedrooms vs your 4 bedrooms, albeit one is smaller. It has a half bathroom less than your home at 2 bathrooms. It had 2 car off street parking as does yours. It originally started on the market at $699,000 and then dropped to $678K before finally selling after 29 days on the market. The home is newly renovated inside so it showed beautifully.

Relevance: Less
Given that it is smaller, has 1 half bath less than yours, 1 bedroom less, is a first floor unit in a top/bottom 2 family I believe your home will sell for more.

Your details: Living area 2091 sq ft | 4 beds | 2.5 baths | Built 2009 |  1 deeded tandem parking, 1 off street common parking space

This home is the first floor of a top/bottom condo. The living area of 2200 sq ft is larger than yours at 2091sq ft, although the 2200 includes the finished basement which is less desirable. It has 4 bedrooms, 1 of which is in the basement. It has 1 less half bath than your home at 2 baths and one of those is in the basement. It is a brand new renovation and everything was done beautifully. The kitchen cabinets were white and went up to the ceiling, stainless steel appliances, granite counters, and a peninsula breakfast bar island.  The home had  1 car garage parking and another off street parking spot. This home originally came on the market at $749K and was taken off after 38 days of not selling at this price. Then it came back on the market at $699K and sold quickly.

Relevance: Relevant
Given the recent renovation, 1 car garage parking spot, larger size albeit the lower level, I believe this home is relevant to yours when all of the pros and cons are factored in.

Your details: Living area 2091 sq ft | 4 beds | 2.5 baths | Built 2009 |  1 deeded tandem parking, 1 off street common parking space

This home is a townhome as is yours. It is larger than your home at 2433 sq ft which includes 3 levels vs yours at 2091 sq ft including 3 levels. It has the same configuration with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. It has 3 off street parking spots versus your 2 off street (1 being tandem). It had recently been renovated and had a stunning kitchen with white cabinetry extending to the ceiling, glass tile backsplash, granite counters, stainless steel appliances and a peninsula breakfast bar island. The home had poor curb appeal. It sold with competing offers for higher than the asking price. The home sold for higher with competition.

Relevance: Relevant, but Higher
Given the larger sq footage, 2016 conversion with new lots of things ie kitchen, 3 off street parking spots I believe it is relevant to your home but it will sell for higher.

Your details: Living area 2091 sq ft | 4 beds | 2.5 baths | Built 2009 |  1 deeded tandem parking, 1 off street common parking space

This home is in the town center in a great location. It is smaller than your home at 1745 sq ft, yours is 2091 sq ft. It has 3 bedrooms versus your 4 bedrooms (albeit one smaller). It has a full master suite which takes up the whole second floor so it is very appealing to buyers. It has a 2 car garage, and the whole home sparkled. The townhome development was built in 2003 so still considered by many to be 'new' construction. The home had competing offers on it and sold for over the asking price. The home sold for higher with competition.

Relevance: Higher
Given the superior location, 2 garage spaces versus 2 off street/tandem parking I believe the pros outweigh the 1 less bedroom and I believe this home will sell for higher than your home.

Your details: Living area 2091 sq ft | 4 beds | 2.5 baths | Built 2009 |  1 deeded tandem parking, 1 off street common parking space

This home is smaller than your home at 1913 sq ft, whereas yours in 2091 sq ft in size. It is the upper 2 floors of a 2 family home.  It has the same number of bedrooms as yours albeit one of yours is smaller, and has 1 less half bathroom with 2 bathrooms. It has a new renovation of the kitchen with white cabinetry, quartz counters, stainless steel appliances, a breakfast bar island and is huge.  The bathrooms have also been renovated recently and are full of modern style. The home has a 1 car garage and 3 tandem parking spots (all for this unit). Competing offers pushed the sale price of the home over the asking price. The home sold for higher with competition.

Relevance: Higher
Given the slightly smaller size, 4 off street parking spots(1 being a garage), new kitchen, 4 bedrooms I believe this home will sell for more than your home.

Your details: Living area 2091 sq ft | 4 beds | 2.5 baths | Built 2009 |  1 deeded tandem parking, 1 off street common parking space

This home is a townhome like yours. It is slightly larger than yours at 2113 sq ft. It has 1 less bedroom at 3 bedrooms, and has the same number of bathrooms.  It was built in 2013 so it is more recent construction than your home.  One of the floors is dedicated for the master suite. The master bathroom is huge with double sink vanity, jacuzzi, shower and toilet. The first floor is fully open with views from the front door down to kitchen.  On the second level both bedrooms are large with walk in closets and share a family bathroom. There is a 2 car garage below, with an additional off street spot in front of the garage. The home has a large green lawn backyard. The home sold for higher with competition.

Relevance: Higher
Given its slightly larger size, newer build, 2 car garage, green lawn backyard I believe this home will sell for more than your home.

Your details: Living area 2091 sq ft | 4 beds | 2.5 baths | Built 2009 |  1 deeded tandem parking, 1 off street common parking space

This home is a similar size to your home at 2082 sq ft, yours is 2091 sq ft.  It is the second and third floor of the 2 family building. It is located in desirable East Arlington, and has just been totally renovated so everything is brand new. It has 1 less bedroom than your home at 3 bedrooms, albeit your 4th bedroom is small. It has 2 full bathrooms vs your 2.5 bathrooms.  The master suite is a full master suite with a stunning master bathroom. The home has french doors in many rooms and the kitchen is huge and open to an informal dining area along with being open to the living room. The kitchen has white cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and a large peninsula breakfast bar. It also has a separate office along with the 3 bedrooms. It has 2 parking spaces which are not tandem. The home sold for higher with competition.

Relevance: Relevant, but higher
Given the superior location, superior condition being a 2017 renovation, similar size, superior parking I believe it is relevant to your home but it will sell for higher.

Your details: Living area 2091 sq ft | 4 beds | 2.5 baths | Built 2009 |  1 deeded tandem parking, 1 off street common parking space

This home is a townhome like yours. It is in the desirable East Arlington neighborhood and was built in 2013. It is larger than your home at 2357 sq ft, yours is 2091 sq ft. It has 3 bedrooms with the master suite taking up one entire floor with a huge bathroom, fireplace, walk in closet. The master bathroom has a jacuzzi, shower, 2 separate vanities and toilet. The kitchen is huge with a large peninsula breakfast bar island, granite counters, stainless steel appliances and is open to the dining room and living room. There is 2 car garage parking along with another off street parking spot.

Relevance: Higher.
Given the superior location, larger size, master suite, 2 car garage parking, recent construction I believe it will sell for more than your home.

Your details: Living area 2091 sq ft | 4 beds | 2.5 baths | Built 2009 |  1 deeded tandem parking, 1 off street common parking space

This condo is simply stunning. It is larger than your home at 2180 sq ft, yours is 2091 sq ft.  It has 3 bedrooms vs your 4 bedrooms albeit one smaller, and this home has an office which could be considered a 4th bedroom. It has 1 more full bathroom than your home with 3.5 bathrooms vs your 2.5 bathrooms. It has 2 car garage parking along with another 3 car off street parking. The home's living areas were totally open plan and the living room had floor to ceiling wainscoting giving it a very rich detail feel to the home. The kitchen was open to the whole of the living area and was separated from the dining room by a 2 tier large breakfast bar island. It had granite counters, stainless steel appliances and was huge. Leading off from the dining room was french doors leading out to the deck and to the backyard full of green grass. The master was large with a large master bathroom which had dual sink marble topped vanity and separate toilet. The home sold for higher with competition.

Relevance: Higher
Given the larger size, extra bathroom, green lawn backyard, 2 car garage parking and additional off street parking spot, large kitchen I believe this home will sell for more than your home.

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Pricing Recommendation

My analysis of the relevant homes outlined above suggests a final market value for your home of $680,000-$720,000.  

Given the current market dynamics in Arlington, I would suggest  listing your home at the lower end of this price range to attract more  interest and potentially multiple offers.  If the market deems your home  to be worth more than the list price, then the price will be pushed  over the market value of your home, and sometimes well over when we get  multiple offers. You can see some examples above that came on the market  for less, and competition pushed them up to the price they sold  for. The challenge in estimating a price for a home is ‘would this home  have sold for this price if they had priced it higher?’ or was  competition the driving factor that got to this price.  Experience tells  me that competition is why they sold for what they did, so we have to  be careful with pricing. Almost every example above shows that the homes that came on the market realistically priced all sold for higher than the asking price, and often higher than their market value because of the emotion of the buyers.

When homes are  overpriced they end up sitting on the market and ultimately selling for  less than market value, whereas homes priced realistically can often  sell for well over market value. Competition is what will get us the  highest sales price. As we see time and time again, if the buyers  consider the market value of your home to be realistic in relation to  the asking price, then competition will push the price up higher and  often over the market value of the home. The challenge with overpricing  is that the buyers are very educated – they go week after week to see  homes in their price range so they KNOW what the prices are and what  ‘feels’ right.

I have to stress that these are  recommendations.  If you decided to sell your home, then we would bring  your home on the market at whatever price you deem to be appropriate.  

When  determining the right price - it all depends on your motivation and  your risk tolerance level. We know that homes that are priced at the  'strike price' will sell quicker and may generate more than one offer.   I’m an excellent negotiator and know how to push a price up if we have  the market activity. I also know that some sellers want to put their  home on for a higher price than I might recommend, which I’m willing to  do, so long as it is understood that putting the home on for more than  the majority of buyers perceive its value, could mean that your home  will have a much longer market time and sell for less than it should  have had it been priced properly out of the gate.

I DO NOT  DETERMINE THE PRICE - the market dictates the value - what a buyer is  willing to pay. My job is to make sure that you have the best market  exposure and that your home is positioned well in the market.   I do not  believe in projecting more money than I think your home will sell for  just to get your business.

My team and I know how to stage and  market your home, and I understand its value, but I can only sell it for  what the market or a buyer will pay. I strongly believe that a home  should be priced compared to the current competition, not just on what  has sold in the last six months.  At the end of the day, you will be  competing for the buyers looking for a home like yours and in the same  price range. You can do far more 'damage' to the resultant price we get  for your home if we overprice. The prospective serious buyers will see  your home within the first weekend of your home coming on the market,  and they will have seen everything else in this price range.  In other  words, the serious buyer knows what is priced well.  If they don't see  value in your home at its listing price and are not motivated to make an  offer, then they will move on and keep looking.  In times of increasing  prices, it is often hard to predict what a home will sell for, but be  assured that even if we price your home lower than what market value is  currently, market dynamics will bring the price of the home up to where  it should be.  Prospective buyers should walk in thinking the price  'feels right' and are motivated to make an offer in the short term,  rather than letting several months’ pass.

It is important to  stress the value of marketing your home to capture the highest price.   In times of low inventory, we know your home will sell by doing the  bare minimum to market it, BUT that is not going to get you the maximum  price for your home.  Key to getting the maximum price for your home is  to prepare a comprehensive marketing plan that incorporates all avenues  available to us to expose your home to the maximum number of buyers out  there looking.  Exposure, and feet in the door, is what will get you the  highest price for your home. Basic ratios help explain this.  If 10% of  the buyers who walk in your door fall in love with your home, then if  you only have 10 buyers walking in, then potentially there is only 1  buyer - if you have 100 buyers walking in your door then using the same  ratios, you will potentially have 10 buyers falling in love with your  home.  10 buyers will push the price up versus only one buyer.

 New statistics state that over 100% of potential buyers  search the web as their primary search vehicle.  Thankfully, your home  will show fabulously in photos. With historically low interest rates  likely to increase and inventory at a 7-year low, there are still homes  that do not sell in this market.  I’m making my recommendations to  ensure that you are one of the sellers who will have success in the  first month of being on the market, but optimally the first weekend.

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